Kyrgyz Republic Public Expenditure Review Policy Notes : Pensions
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Washington, DC
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Today, the Kyrgyz pension system plays a
major role in poverty alleviation of the elderly but this
role is diminishing fast due to low coverage of working age
population. The system currently provides pensions to more
than 90 percent of the population over age 65 thus being a
significant buffer against poverty. Over time, though, the
poverty reduction effect of the pension system is expected
to weaken substantially as the current low coverage rates
among the working age population translate into much lower
coverage rates of about only 60 percent for the future old
age population. As a result, poverty rates among the
old-age population will grow and government spending on
social pensions will increase dramatically. The structure of
this chapter is as follows. The next section provides an
overview of the current pension system and the main issues
facing it. Section three presents the results of the
financial projections for the current system assuming a
no-reform scenario and the implications of doing nothing on
the finances of the Social Fund, the cost to the government
and the expected benefits (baseline projections). Section
four considers several broad reform options and their impact
with respect to the financial sustainability and
affordability of the system as well as adequacy of benefits.
Section five outlines the issues remaining beyond the scope
of this study which require further analysis. Annex one
summarizes the main parameters of the current pension system
and annexes two provides a brief description of the main
assumptions used in the projections and the projection
methodology. The diagnosis of the current system and the
evaluation of the reform options presented in this chapter
are based on the simulations produced with the World Bank
Pension Reform Options Simulation Toolkit (PROST) model.
Palabras clave
ACCRUAL RATE, ANNUITY, ANNUITY FACTORS, ASSET MANAGEMENT, AVERAGE WAGE GROWTH, BANKING SYSTEM, BASIC PENSION, BASIC PENSIONS, BENEFICIARIES, BENEFICIARY, BENEFIT ADJUSTMENTS, BENEFIT FORMULA, BENEFIT INDEXATION, BENEFIT LEVELS, BENEFIT PAYMENTS, CASH FLOWS, CASH INCOME, CHANGES IN FERTILITY, COMPENSATION, CONSTANT SHARE, CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING, CONTRIBUTION RATE, CONTRIBUTION RATES, CURRENCY, DATA AVAILABILITY, DEFICIT FINANCING, DEFICITS, DEFINED BENEFIT, DEFINED CONTRIBUTIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISABILITY, DISABILITY PENSION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ELDERLY, ELDERLY POPULATION, EMPLOYEE, EQUITY ISSUES, EXCHANGE RATE, FAMILIES, FERTILITY, FERTILITY RATE, FERTILITY RATES, FINANCES, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL HEALTH, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY, FUND DATA, FUNDED COMPONENT, FUNDED COMPONENTS, FUNDED SCHEME, GENDER, GENDERS, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GOVERNMENT FINANCING, GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION, GOVERNMENT PENSION, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH INSURANCE, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMMIGRATION, IMPLICIT PENSION DEBT, INCOME GROUPS, INCOME LEVEL, INCOME TAX, INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNT, INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS, INFLATION, INFLATION INDEXATION, INFLATION RATES, INFORMAL SECTOR, INITIAL RETIREMENT AGE, INSURANCE, INSURANCE PENSION, INSURANCE PENSIONS, INTEREST RATE, INTERGOVERNMENTAL TRANSFERS, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, INVESTMENT INCOME, INVESTMENT RETURNS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LABOR MARKET, LEGISLATION, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LIFE EXPECTANCY ESTIMATES, LONG TERM PROJECTIONS, LOW-INCOME ECONOMY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET DISTORTIONS, MIGRANT, MIGRANT WORKERS, MIGRANTS, MIGRATION, MORTALITY, MULTI-PILLAR SYSTEM, NATIONAL COMMITTEE, NATIONAL PENSION, NET WAGES, NOTIONAL ACCOUNT, NOTIONAL ACCOUNTS, NOTIONAL CAPITAL, OLD AGE, OLD-AGE, OLD-AGE PENSION, OLD-AGE PENSIONS, OLDER PERSONS, OUTPUT, OUTPUTS, PAY-AS-YOU-GO SYSTEM, PAYROLL TAX, PENSION, PENSION AT RETIREMENT, PENSION BENEFIT, PENSION BENEFITS, PENSION COSTS, PENSION DEBT, PENSION EXPENDITURE, PENSION EXPENDITURES, PENSION FINANCING, PENSION FUND, PENSION PAYMENTS, PENSION POLICY, PENSION REFORM, PENSION RIGHTS, PENSION SCHEME, PENSION SPENDING, PENSION SYSTEM, PENSION SYSTEM PARAMETERS, PENSION SYSTEMS, PENSIONER, PENSIONERS, PENSIONS, POPULATION DATA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, POTENTIAL INVESTMENT, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, PRICE INDEXATION, PRIVATE PENSION, PRIVATE PENSION FUNDS, PRIVATE SAVINGS, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC PENSION, PUBLIC SPENDING, RATE OF RETURN, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REPLACEMENT RATE, REPLACEMENT RATES, RESPECT, RETIREES, RETIREMENT, RETIREMENT AGE, RETIREMENT BENEFITS, RETIREMENT PENSIONS, SAVINGS ACCOUNT, SAVINGS ACCOUNTS, SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, SOCIAL FUND, SOCIAL IMPACT, SOCIAL PENSION, SOCIAL PENSIONS, SOCIAL POLICY, STOCKS, SUBSISTENCE FARMING, SURVIVOR PENSION, SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH, TRANSITION COUNTRIES, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, VOLUNTARY PENSION, VOLUNTARY PENSIONS, WILL, WORKING POPULATION, WORKING-AGE POPULATION