A Risk Analysis of Alternative Crop and Irrigation Strategies Using Biophysical Simulations
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Combining risk programming with biophysical simulation offers potential benefits for
helping farmers in developing countries choose cropping and irrigation strategies or for the study of farmer
behaviour. Risk can have a significant impact on the way resources are allocated and should therefore be
considered in empirical studies. This study uses risk programming and biophysical simulation models to
find the expected utilityMmaximizing irrigation strategy and crop choice for southwestern Kansas farmers.
Biophysical simulation models allow the researcher to obtain yield data for a longer time period than is
typically available from agronomic studies, and to study risk on a very localized level. Direct expected
utility maximization is used to determine the optimal strategies. Results from the study suggest that
biophysical simulation models offer a promising avenue to further understanding of the impacts of risk
on farm management decisions. Because biophysical simulation models are transferable to different
regions of the world, biophysical simulation can be an attractive alternative to conducting risk research
in developing countries.