Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa

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dc.creatorHeadey, Derek D.
dc.creatorMaystadt, Jean-François
dc.creatorCalderone, Margherita Bernal
dc.date2014
dc.date2024-08-01T02:50:43Z
dc.date2024-08-01T02:50:43Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:39:54Z
dc.descriptionThe Shuffled Complex Evolution—Universal Algorithm (SCE‐UA) is an automatic calibration algorithm that has shown success in finding a globally optimum objective function with more efficiency than other methods. We incorporated the SCE‐UA into our novel modeling environment, utilizing an ontology‐based simulation (OntoSim‐Sugarcane) framework adapted to analyze groundwater table (WT) fluctuations and drainage practices on four farm basins in the Everglades Agricultural Area of south Florida.Utilizing two water years (WY96–97) of farm WT fluctuations observed at a portion (<16 ha) of each farm basin, two parameters—lateral hydraulic conductivities of soil profile and vertical hydraulic conductivity of underlying limestone—were automatically calibrated. Regardless of farms, the best parameter sets that minimize the objective function of daily root mean square error could be found after 1500 simulation runs. The quality of matching simulated to observed values of farm WT were further assessed by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE). The NSE ranged from 0.38 to 0.75 (calibration period, WY96–97) and 0.10 to 0.76 (validation period, WY98–99) on all four farms. These results indicate that this coupling strengthens the capability of OntoSim‐Sugarcane to model hydrology by objectively finding the best parameter sets. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/150107
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/111028
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896296787
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceCalderone, Margherita; Headey, Derek D. and Maystadt, Jean-François. 2014. Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa. In Resilience for food and nutrition security. Eds. Fan, Shenggen; Pandya-Lorch, Rajul and Yosef, Sivan. Chapter 8. Pp. 65-74. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150107
dc.subjecteconomic shock
dc.subjectnutrition security
dc.subjectenvironmental factors
dc.subjectshock
dc.subjecteconomic development
dc.subjectsocial protection
dc.subjectpastoralism
dc.subjectmalnutrition
dc.subjectdrought
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectweather
dc.subjectconflicts
dc.subjectfood prices
dc.subjectsocial safety nets
dc.subjectresilience
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.titleResilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa
dc.typeBook Chapter

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)