Angola Country Economic Memorandum
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The Angolan economy is at a significant
juncture. The current growth model based on oil wealth is
nearly exhausted and has not delivered inclusive growth and
shared prosperity. Angola faces two broad policy challenges
that need to be addressed urgently: macroeconomic
stabilization and a more inclusive economic growth. The
internal and external imbalances following the adjustment to
lower oil prices pose a challenge to macro-stabilization.
The prospect of volatile oil prices and potentially
diminishing oil reserves over the medium and long-term call
for a new sustainable and inclusive growth model that
promotes economic diversification, a model that is less
dependent on natural resource exports. The new
administration is aware of these challenges and has started
to implement much needed reforms. Angola is right to focus
on reforms that lay the foundation for long-term
macroeconomic stability and economic diversification.
Analyses conducted as part of this report indicate that
there are significant gains to be had from such reforms. The
objective of this report on Angola is to support policy
makers in their reform efforts. The report is organized as
follows: Chapter 1 takes stock of recent trends and
determinants of growth in Angola, highlighting the
importance of natural resource wealth and volatility for
growth outcomes. Chapter 2 presents the findings of a growth
diagnostic for Angola, and highlights low human capital,
access to finance, weak institutions and macroeconomic
instability as critical and binding constraints for the
non-oil economy. Chapter 3 uses product space analysis to
evaluate Angola’s current and future potential for economic
and export diversification, drawing attention to products
and services sectors in which there is potential for export
upgrading and/or product innovation. Chapter 4 provides an
overview of the agriculture sector and assesses its
potential for economic diversification. Chapter 5 sets out
the way forward, identifying: critical reforms for
macroeconomic stability; a fiscal framework for
natural-resource wealth management; and macro-financial stability.
Palabras clave
ECONOMIC GROWTH, DIVERSIFICATION, COMPETITIVENESS, PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN, POVERTY REDUCTION, REMITTANCES, EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS, EXPORTS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, NATURAL RESOURCES