Turning the Tide in Turbulent Times : Making the Most of Kenya's Demographic Change and Rapid Urbanization
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Washington, DC
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Kenya will need to navigate through
another economic storm in 2011. This will reduce growth to a
projected 4.8 percent, which is still substantially higher
than the average of the last decade. The decade started on a
bullish note for Kenya. In 2010, growth was higher than
expected at 5.6 percent. If growth accelerated to 6 percent,
Kenya could reach Middle Income Country status by 2019.
Kenya is at the threshold of a major demographic transition
and is urbanizing rapidly. Each year, Kenya will continue to
grow by more than one million people, who will live longer,
be better educated, and increasingly live in cities. This
social and economic transformation needs to be managed well
to catalyze its development impact. This report recommends
that in order for Kenya to continue to prosper in 2011 it
will need to maintain macroeconomic stability, and contain
inflation and further increases in debt. This entails
tighter monetary policies and a reduction of the fiscal
deficit. If there is a need for additional expenditures in
response to external shocks, reallocations seem to be the
most appropriate response. Kenya can leverage its auspicious
location and its role as a hub for the larger East African
region by upgrading its infrastructure, creating a good
business environment, and continuing with region
integration. This would also position Kenya globally and
generate additional exports in services and manufacturing.
The report concludes that the best way to start making Kenya
more competitive is to strengthen its coastal hub and to
modernize the port of Mombasa.
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ACCOUNTABILITY STRUCTURES, ADVERSE SHOCKS, AFFORDABLE HOUSING, AGRICULTURE, AIRPORT, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK BRANCHES, BANK RATE, BASIS POINTS, BEST MARKET, BILL, BRANCH NETWORKS, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUFFERS, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT, CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL FLIGHT, CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, CARS, CASH RESERVE, CASH TRANSFERS, CENTRAL BANK, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY, COMMON MARKET, COMMUTERS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMERS, CREDIT GROWTH, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, DEPOSIT, DEPOSIT RATES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DIVIDEND, DIVIDENDS, DRIVING, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC EXPANSION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC REFORM, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, EMERGING MARKETS, ENABLING ENVIRONMENT, EQUIPMENT, EXCESS LIQUIDITY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPANSION OF EXPORTS, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT BASE, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORTER, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, EXTREME POVERTY, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SERVICE, FINANCIAL SERVICE PROVIDERS, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICY, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FREIGHT, FREIGHT SERVICES, FUEL, FUEL PRICE, FUEL PRICES, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMIES, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL EXPORT, GLOBAL EXPORTS, GLOBAL MARKETS, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH TRANSPORT, HIGH-SPEED TRAIN, HOLDING, IMBALANCE, IMPORT, IMPORT COSTS, IMPORTS, INCOME, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, INSURANCE, INTEREST RATES, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, INVESTMENT FLOWS, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LAND TRANSPORT, LEVERAGE, LEVIES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LIQUIDITY, LOCAL ECONOMY, MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET ACCESS, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, NEW MARKET, NEW MARKETS, NEW PRODUCTS, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OUTPUT, OUTSOURCING, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICE, POLICY RESPONSE, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH, PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT, PROFIT MARGINS, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC POLICY, RAIL, RAILWAY, RAILWAY LINE, RAILWAY SYSTEM, REAL ESTATE, REAL GROWTH RATE, REFORM PROGRAM, REGIONAL MARKETS, REPO, REPO RATE, ROAD, ROAD LINKS, ROADS, ROUTES, SAVINGS, SAVINGS RATE, SCANDAL, SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, STOCK EXCHANGE, STOCK MARKET, STOCK MARKET DECLINES, STOCKS, STREETS, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, SUPPLY SHOCK, TARIFF BARRIERS, TAX, TOTAL CREDIT, TOTAL EXPORT, TOTAL IMPORTS, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE SHOCKS, TRADING, TRADING PARTNER, TRADING PARTNERS, TRADING VOLUMES, TRAFFIC, TRANSIT, TRANSIT CORRIDOR, TRANSPORT, TRANSPORT COSTS, TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT, UNCERTAINTY, UPWARD PRESSURE, URBANIZATION, VALUE ADDED, VEHICLE, VEHICLES, WAGES, WAREHOUSE, WORLD MARKETS