Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security

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dc.creatorIslam, Shahnila
dc.creatorCenacchi, Nicola
dc.creatorSulser, Timothy B.
dc.creatorGbegbelegbe, Sika
dc.creatorHareau, Guy
dc.creatorKleinwechter, Ulrich
dc.creatorMason-D'Croz, Daniel
dc.creatorNedumaran, Swamikannu
dc.creatorRobertson, Richard D.
dc.creatorRobinson, Sherman
dc.creatorWiebe, Keith D.
dc.date2016-09
dc.date2016-11-25T10:19:32Z
dc.date2016-11-25T10:19:32Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:58:07Z
dc.descriptionAchieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic modeling to explore the combined effects of climate stresses and future socioeconomic trends, thus providing a more accurate picture of how agriculture and the food system may be affected in the coming decades. We review and analyze the literature on this structural approach and present a case study that follows this methodology, explicitly modeling drought and heat tolerant crop varieties. We show that yield gains from adoption of these varieties differ by technology and region, but are generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) adverse effects of climate change. However, yield increases over the projection period are dominated by the effects of growth in population, income, and general productivity, highlighting the importance of joint assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/77867
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/118800
dc.languageen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145996
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceIslam, S., Cenacchi, N., Sulser, T.B., Gbegbelegbe, S., Hareau, G., Kleinwechter, U., ... & Wiebe, K. (2016). Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security. Global Food Security, 10, 63-70.
dc.subjectyields
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectadaptation
dc.subjectmaize
dc.subjectsorghum
dc.subjectbiophysical modeling
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjecteconomic modeling
dc.subjectstructural approach
dc.subjectagricultural productivity
dc.subjectresource management
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjecttechnological changes
dc.subjecteconomic development
dc.subjectcommodities
dc.subjectmalnutrition
dc.subjectnutrition
dc.subjecttrade
dc.subjectfood supply
dc.subjectproductivity
dc.subjectprotected areas
dc.subjectstructural dynamics
dc.subjectprices
dc.subjectcommodity markets
dc.titleStructural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (IITA)