Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ

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dc.creatorFan, Shenggen
dc.creatorAgcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita
dc.date1997-06
dc.date2024-12-19T12:56:48Z
dc.date2024-12-19T12:56:48Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T14:55:05Z
dc.descriptionThis article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self‐sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infrastructure constraints on grain imports.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/166911
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/89326
dc.languageen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.sourceFan, Shenggen; Agcaoili‐Sombilla, Mercedita. 1997. Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ. Aus J Agri and Res Econ, Volume 41 no. 2 p. 169-190
dc.subjectsupply balance
dc.subjectprojections
dc.subjecttrade
dc.subjectproduction
dc.subjectimports
dc.subjectincome elasticities
dc.subjectyields
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjectchina
dc.titleWhy projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)