Republic of Uzbekistan : Country Economic Memorandum
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Washington, DC
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Uzbekistan adopted upon independence in
1991, an import substitution development strategy, intended
to transform the economy from heavy dependence on
agriculture and natural resources, to a modern industrial
economy, helping achieve some objectives, notably energy and
food self-sufficiency, having sustained growth for the past
six years. However, this report argues that important goals
have not been met, and there are still significant
opportunity costs, and risks to the development strategy.
Priority reforms should be a decisive move to liberalize
prices, production, marketing and distribution, coupled with
the imposition of hard budget constraints. Given the need
for a robust supply response, reforms need to be
sufficiently comprehensive, and deep to allow for rapid
re-alignment of productive factors. The initial
liberalization would be followed by further institutional
reforms, and restructuring in enterprise, banking, and
energy sectors. Recommendations suggest the liberalization
of the foreign exchange regime in conjunction with tight
fiscal, and monetary policies, in order to raise bank
interest rates to positive real levels. This leads to the
necessary removal of barriers to foreign trade, by
eliminating non-tariff barriers, and advance payment
restrictions on imports, replacing export prepayment
requirements with time limits on repatriation of exports
earnings by domestic enterprises. Subsequently, the VAT
should be refunded on all exports, and imports duty
exemptions on inputs for exports, uniformly applied.
Moreover, it is suggested to enhance price and market
flexibility, to reduce significantly material balances, and
phase-out completely the cash, and mandatory crop plans, to
ensure that farms, and firms can respond to market price
signals. Overall, this would foster an active commercial
behavior by enterprises, strengthen social protection, and
increase transparency.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, AGRICULTURE, ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES, AUDITS, AUTONOMY, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK PRIVATIZATION, BANK PROFITS, BANK RESTRUCTURING, BANKING REFORM, BANKING SYSTEM, BORROWING POLICIES, BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, BUDGET DEFICITS, CABINET OF MINISTERS, CAPITAL FLIGHT, CAPITAL GOODS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL PLANNING, CLOSED ECONOMY, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSENSUS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMERS, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CPI, DEBT, DECISION-MAKING, DEMAND FOR MONEY, DEPOSITS, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT BANKING, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INFORMATION, ECONOMIC REFORM, ECONOMIC RELATIONS, ECONOMIC RESOURCES, ECONOMIC SITUATION, EMPLOYMENT GENERATION, ENACTMENT, ENTERPRISE RESTRUCTURING, ENTREPRENEURSHIP, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE DEVALUATION, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPANSIONARY FISCAL, EXPENDITURE, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORTS, FARMS, FINANCIAL AUTONOMY, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE, FINANCIAL SUPPORT, FISCAL, FISCAL ADJUSTMENT, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL STANCE, FOREIGN BORROWING, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE REGIME, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FOREIGN TRADE, FORMAL EMPLOYMENT, FORMAL SECTOR, FORMAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, GDP, GDP DEFLATOR, GDP PER CAPITA, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT POLICIES, GOVERNMENT'S DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HARD BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, IMPORT TARIFFS, IMPORTS, INCOME, INDUSTRIALIZATION, INFLATION, INFORMATION DISCLOSURE, INFORMATION DISSEMINATION, INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS, INSURANCE, INTEREST RATE, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, INTERMEDIATE INPUTS, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR REDEPLOYMENT, LEGISLATION, LIVING STANDARDS, LOAN COMMITMENTS, LOW INTEREST RATES, MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MARKET DISTORTIONS, MARKET PRICES, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, MONETARY POLICIES, NATURAL MONOPOLIES, NATURAL RESOURCES, OIL, OIL REFINERIES, OPPORTUNITY COST, OPPORTUNITY COSTS, OVERVALUATION, PENSION FUND, PENSIONS, POPULATION GROWTH, POVERTY LINE, PRICE CONTROLS, PRIVATIZATION AGENCY, PUBLIC INFORMATION, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SECTOR DEFICITS, PURCHASING POWER, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST RATES, RELATIVE PRICES, RESOURCE ALLOCATION, SHORT-TERM DEBT, SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM, SOCIAL SECTOR, STATE BANKS, STATE BUDGET, STATE ENTERPRISE, STATE PROCUREMENT, TARIFF BARRIERS, TAX AUTHORITIES, TAX LIABILITIES, TAXATION, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TERMS OF TRADE, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPORT, UNEMPLOYMENT, WAGES COUNTRY ECONOMIC WORK, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY, NATURAL RESOURCE UTILIZATION, INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, ENERGY FLOW, FOOD SECURITY, OPPORTUNITY COSTS, RISK MANAGEMENT, REFORM POLICY, PRICING REFORMS, LIBERALIZATION, BUDGET ADMINISTRATION, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, INSTITUTIONAL REFORM, ENTERPRISE RESTRUCTURING, BANKING REFORMS, ENERGY SECTOR REFORM, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK MANAGEMENT, FISCAL CONTRACTION, MONETARY POLICY, INTEREST RATE INCREASES, TRADE BARRIERS, TARIFF POLICY, EXPORT RESTRICTIONS, IMPORT PAYMENTS, MARKET PROJECTIONS, COMMERCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS, SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS