The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short and Medium Term Estimates for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone
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Washington, DC
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The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola Virus
Disease in West Africa has taken a horrible human toll.
Although the outbreak originated in rural Guinea, it has hit
hardest in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in part because it has
reached urban areas in these two countries, a factor that
distinguishes this outbreak from previous episodes
elsewhere. As of September 10, 2014, there had been 2,281
recorded deaths out of 4,614 suspected or confirmed cases of
Ebola. Experts fear that the true numbers may be two to four
times larger, due to underreporting. Misery and suffering
have been intense, especially in Liberia where doctors have
had to turning patients away for lack of space in Ebola
treatment centers. Inevitably, before the outbreak is
contained the human impacts will increase considerably over
these numbers. Epidemiological estimates are acknowledged as
highly uncertain and are not the subject of this note. What
is certain is that limiting the human cost will require
significant financial resources and a concerted partnership
between international partners and the affected countries.
Particularly in Liberia and Sierra Leone, government
capacity is already overrun and the epidemic is impacting
macroeconomic activity and budgetary resources. This note
informs the response to the epidemic by estimating these
macroeconomic and fiscal effects. Any such exercise is
necessarily highly imprecise due to limited data and many
uncertain factors, but it is still necessary in order to
plan the economic assistance that must accompany the
immediate humanitarian response. The goal is to help
affected countries to recover and return to the robust
economic growth they had experienced until the offset of
this crisis.
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ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES, ADVERSE EFFECT, ADVERSE EFFECTS, AGED, AGRICULTURAL GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURE, AIRPORT, AIRPORTS, AVIAN INFLUENZA, BARS, BEER, BEVERAGES, BORDER TRAFFIC, BOTTLED WATER, BOTTLENECKS, BREWERY, CANDLES, CAPITAL FLIGHT, CASSAVA, CENTRAL BANK, COCOA, CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONTAGION, CONTAINERS, CROSSINGS, DEMAND FOR FOOD, DIESEL, DISEASE, DISEASE OUTBREAKS, DISEASE SURVEILLANCE, DISEASES, DOMESTIC TRANSPORT, DOMESTIC TRAVEL, EBOLA, EBOLA VIRUS, ECONOMIC FORECASTING, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC RISK, ECONOMIC SECTORS, EDIBLE OILS, EMERGENCY MEASURES, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, EMERGENCY TREATMENT, EPIDEMIC, EPIDEMICS, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPORTS, FAMILIES, FOOD IMPORTS, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD RATIONS, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD STAPLES, FOOD STOCKS, FOODS, FORECASTS, FRUIT, FUEL, FUEL PRICES, GDP, GROWTH RATE, HAZARD, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH SERVICES, HEALTH WORKERS, HOSPITALS, INFECTION, INFLATION, INFLUENZA, INFLUENZA CONTROL, INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT, INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL, IRON, ISOLATION, LEADING INDICATORS, MACROECONOMIC ACTIVITY, MALNUTRITION, MARKETING, MIGRATION, MOBILITY, MORBIDITY, MORTALITY, NURSES, NUTRITION, OILS & FATS, PALM OIL, PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS, PASSENGERS, PATIENTS, PER CAPITA INCOME, PLASTICS, PRICE INCREASES, PUBLIC HEALTH, REAL GDP, RESTAURANTS, RICE, ROAD, ROOMS, RUBBER, SAFETY, SOFT DRINKS, SPILLOVER IMPACTS, TAX, TAX REVENUE, TAXIS, TOLL, TOTAL REVENUE, TRAFFIC, TRANSIT, TRANSIT TRADE, TRANSPORT, TRANSPORT SECTOR, TRANSPORTATION, TRAVELERS, TREATMENT, TRUE, VICTIMS, WFP, WHEAT, WORKERS, WORLD FOOD PROGRAM