Agricultural Productivity and Non-Farm Employment
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper provides evidence on the
impacts of agricultural productivity on employment growth
and structural transformation of non-farm activities. To
guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general
equilibrium model that emphasizes distinctions among
non-farm activities in terms of tradable-non-tradable and
the formal-informal characteristics. The model shows that
when a significant portion of village income is spent on
town/urban goods, restricting empirical analysis to the
village sample leads to underestimation of
agriculture's role in employment growth and
transformation of non-farm activities. Using rainfall as an
instrument for agricultural productivity, empirical analysis
finds a significant positive effect of agricultural
productivity growth on growth of informal (small-scale)
manufacturing and skilled services employment, mainly in
education and health services. For formal employment, the
effect of agricultural productivity growth on employment is
found to be largest in the samples that include urban areas
and rural towns compared with rural areas alone.
Agricultural productivity growth is found to induce
structural transformation within the services sector with
employment in formal/skilled services growing at a faster
pace than that of low skilled services.
Palabras clave
JOBS, EMPLOYMENT, AGRICULTURAL GROWTH, FARM GROWTH, MOTIVATION, RURAL INEQUALITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ACCOUNTING, PRODUCTION, UTILITY FUNCTIONS, SUPPLY CURVE, EMPLOYMENT SHARE, INFORMAL SECTOR, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, INCOME, LABOR ALLOCATION, INTEREST RATE, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, TOTAL LABOR FORCE, INFORMATION, LABOR FORCE, DOMESTIC MARKET, ELASTICITY, POLITICAL ECONOMY, WELFARE, OPTIMIZATION, EFFECTS, POOR PEOPLE, EQUILIBRIUM, VARIABLES, RURAL POPULATION, PRODUCTIVITY INCREASE, MEASURES, ACTIVE LABOR, POVERTY REDUCTION, AGRICULTURAL WAGE, DEVELOPMENT, DISAGGREGATED ANALYSIS, EMPLOYMENT LEVEL, DOMESTIC WORKERS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, LABOR MARKET, CROP YIELD, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS, RURAL HOUSEHOLD, IRRIGATION EXPANSION, RURAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME, EMPLOYMENT LEVELS, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, RURAL INCOME, FIRING COSTS, INCOME GROWTH, FOOD PRICE, FARM EMPLOYMENT, PRODUCTIVITY, NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT, EXTERNALITIES, INDUSTRIALIZATION, UNEMPLOYED, AGRICULTURAL WAGES, EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION, MARKETS, ORGANIZATIONS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, ECONOMIC CENSUSES, FARM WORKERS, LABOR, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, UTILITY, RURAL VILLAGES, FARM SECTOR, EXPORT MARKET, FOOD PRODUCTION, UNEMPLOYMENT, CROP YIELDS, LABOR COST, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, CONSUMPTION, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, HUMAN CAPITAL, OPPORTUNITY COST, EMPLOYMENT INFORMATION, WORKERS, WAGES, POLICIES, EMPLOYMENT SITUATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, DOMESTIC MARKETS, REAL WAGE, PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES, LABOR DEMAND, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, DIVISION OF LABOR, FARM ACTIVITIES, DEMAND, UTILITY FUNCTION, AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, RURAL ECONOMY, ECONOMY, AGRICULTURE, CONSUMERS, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, RURAL, RURAL TOWNS, MEASUREMENT, WAGE RATE, CROP SCIENTISTS, LABOR MOBILITY, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, ECONOMICS, EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURAL YIELDS, MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS, TRADE, GDP, GOODS, THEORY, GROWTH RATE, INTERNATIONAL MARKET, INVESTMENT, MARKET EQUILIBRIUM, IRRIGATION, RISK, EXPANSION OF IRRIGATION, RURAL AREAS, POVERTY, SUPPLY, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, LABOR SUPPLY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT, POOR, FOOD PROCESSING, LABOR MARKETS, OUTCOMES, WATER FOR IRRIGATION, PRICES, LABOR REGULATIONS, LABOR MIGRATION, MARKET WAGE, NON-FARM SECTOR, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, INEQUALITY, EXCLUSION RESTRICTION, EMPLOYEES