Liberia : Strategic Policy Options for Medium Term Growth and Development
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Washington, DC
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This paper explores Liberia's
policy options in support of the development of a
Medium-Term Growth and Development Strategy (MTGDS) for
2013-2017 and its national vision, Liberia Rising 2030. At
issue is the mismatch between available fiscal space and the
enormous development needs that the government must resolve
as it prepares to transform the economy into a middle-income
country by 2040. This dilemma calls for the new
administration to make trade-offs among various priorities
if it is to achieve its aspirations. For this purpose, a
Liberian version of a single-country Computable General
Equilibrium (CGE) model, MAMS (Maquette for Millennium
Development Goal, or MDG simulations), was developed and
informed by analytical studies as well as sector strategies
prepared in support of Liberia's MTGDS. This paper
examines the likely impacts on macroeconomic and social
indicators of alternate strategic policy scenarios. A base
scenario (designed to represent a central case for the
evolution of Liberia's economy up to 2030) was first
established, and thereafter a set of different assumptions
were introduced for the mining sector, government spending
on infrastructure and human development, and foreign
borrowing. The paper is organized into five sections
including this introduction. Section two presents the basic
features of MAMS. The simulation analysis, which is the
focus of the paper, is covered in the next two sections: the
base scenario in section three and a set of alternative
scenarios, which are contrasted with the base scenario, in
section four. The final section summarizes the main findings
and conclusion. Appendices one and two include a set of
figures with selected simulation results and a brief
discussion of the Liberian database for MAMS, respectively.
Palabras clave
ABSOLUTE VALUE, ACCOUNTING, ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL, ADDITIONAL UNIT OF CAPITAL, AGRICULTURAL SECTORS, AGRICULTURE, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT, BENCHMARK, BUDGET CONSTRAINT, BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL INTENSITY, CAPITAL STOCK, CAPITAL STOCKS, CENTRAL BANK, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY MARKETS, CONSUMPTION DECISIONS, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CREDIT FACILITY, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DATA AVAILABILITY, DEBT, DEBT CAPITAL, DEBT INTEREST, DEBT STOCK, DEBT STOCKS, DEMAND CURVES, DEMAND DECLINES, DEPRECIATION, DEPRECIATION RATE, DEPRECIATION RATES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT POLICIES, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DISPOSABLE INCOME, DOMESTIC BORROWING, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC DEBT, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICE LEVELS, DOMESTIC PRICES, DOMESTIC SAVINGS, DONOR RESOURCES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EDUCATION SPENDING, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL BALANCE, FACTOR DEMAND, FACTOR MARKETS, FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, FINANCES, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL RESOURCES, FIXED INVESTMENT, FOREIGN DEBT, FOREIGN DEBTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN GOVERNMENT, FOREIGN INTEREST, FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS, FULL EMPLOYMENT, GDP, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GINI COEFFICIENT, GOLD, GOVERNMENT BORROWING, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT CAPACITY, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT INVESTMENTS, GOVERNMENT REVENUE, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS NATIONAL INCOME, GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS, GROWTH RATE, HOLDINGS, HOUSEHOLDS, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPORT, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORT TARIFFS, IMPORTS, INCOMES, INEQUALITY, INFORMATION SERVICES, INITIAL INVESTMENT, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTERNAL RATES OF RETURN, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT FINANCING, INVESTMENT FLOW, INVESTMENT SPENDING, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMICS, MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY, MARGINAL VALUE, MARKET PRICES, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRY, MONETARY FUND, NATIONAL ECONOMY, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL RESOURCES, OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY, OUTPUT, OUTPUTS, OUTTURN, OUTTURNS, PAYMENT FLOWS, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE CHANGE, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE LEVELS, PRIVATE CAPITAL, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SAVINGS, PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES, PROFIT MAXIMIZATION, PUBLIC POLICY, PUBLIC SPENDING, RAPID EXPANSION, RAPID GROWTH, RATES FOR EXPORTS, REAL APPRECIATION, REAL COST, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REAL GROWTH RATES, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATES, RECEIPT, RECEIPTS, RELATIVE PRICE, RELATIVE PRICES, RETURNS, SALES REVENUE, SAVINGS, SAVINGS RATE, SHARE OF INVESTMENTS, SLOW GROWTH, SMALL COUNTRY, STOCK CHANGE, SUPPLY CURVE, SUPPLY CURVES, SUPPLY SIDE, SURPLUS, TAX, TAX RATE, TAX RATES, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE TRANSACTIONS, TRANSACTIONS COSTS, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WAGES, WEIGHTS, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD MARKETS, WORLD PRICE, WORLD PRICES