Taking Stock, December 2011
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World Bank, Hanoi
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Prospects for the global economy have
become less certain in the second half of 2011, with
significant increase in downside risks. Developing countries
in East Asia are growing faster than developed countries,
but they too are facing challenges due to a combination of
reasons including: slower expansion in demand in developed
countries; the impact of global uncertainty on investor
sentiments; natural disasters; and the withdrawal of
stimulus policies. Vietnam's growth slowed in 2011
compared to 2010, though it is still expected to reach
around 5.8 percent. The external sector has remained
relatively stable. The current account deficit declined in
2011, as export performance outpaced imports and remittances
grew robustly. Both import and export values saw a dramatic
rise, mostly because of higher commodities prices. External
debt remains sustainable, as the current account deficit was
more than covered through medium-term capital inflows that
are largely non debt-creating (foreign direct investments)
or contracted on concessional terms (official development
aid). Foreign direct investment inflows continued at a
steady pace, although new commitments declined.
International reserves increased in the first half of the
year while the Vietnamese dong benefitted from a period of
relative calm. In the last quarter of the year, however,
exchange rate fluctuations increased due to volatility in
gold prices, deepening uncertainties and the seasonal
increase in demand for foreign currency as the year end
approaches. In the longer run, Vietnam's ambition to
maintain high growth into the next decade will require as
bold a set of reforms as the one adopted with Doi Moi. The
challenge is arguably more difficult than the previous one,
and few countries in the world have accomplished it. Vietnam
is endowed with a young and hard-working labor force. This
is a vital asset to meet the country's ambitious goals,
if the country manages to equip itself with relevant skills,
and match it with necessary capital. It also needs a
level-playing field to maximize its potential. As people
become more educated and production becomes more
sophisticated, demands for predictability, trust and a level
playing field will grow. Transparency is a critical element
in this. Concentration of economic power in a small number
of large firms undermines efforts at creating a level
playing field. Large firms and industries that circumvent
rules to their advantage are promoting corruption, and
undermining efficiency, which damages the country's
potential. The governance challenges are complex, but
Vietnam's medium term outlook will be much better if
they are addressed sooner rather than later.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, ASSET QUALITY, BANK LOANS, BANK PORTFOLIOS, BANK SUPERVISION, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SECTORS, BANKING SUPERVISION, BANKING SYSTEM, BANKRUPTCY, CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CENTRAL BANK, CLARITY, COAL, COMMERCIAL BANK, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY, COMMODITY EXPORT, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPLIANCE COSTS, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONTINGENT LIABILITIES, CORE INFLATION, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CPI, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT INSTITUTION, CREDIT INSTITUTIONS, CURRENCY COMPOSITION, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DAMAGES, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT OUTSTANDING, DEBT SERVICE, DEBT STOCK, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, DEBTS, DEPOSIT, DEPOSIT RATES, DEPOSITS, DEPRECIATION, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DIFFICULTIES DUE, DISBURSEMENTS, DISTORTED INCENTIVES, DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE, DOMESTIC BANKS, DOMESTIC DEMAND, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POWER, ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORT VOLUMES, EXPOSURE, EXTERNAL BALANCE, EXTERNAL BORROWING, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCE CORPORATION, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SECTORS, FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POSITION, FISCAL POSITIONS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN CURRENCIES, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FORESTRY, GDP, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET, GOLD, GOLD PRICES, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HARD CURRENCIES, HIGH INFLATION, HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES, HOLDING, HOLDINGS, IMPORT, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORT PRICES, IMPORT RESTRICTIONS, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOMES, INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, INELASTIC DEMAND, INFLATION, INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS, INFORMATION DISCLOSURE, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATE CAP, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICES, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL PRICE, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES, INVESTMENT INFLOWS, INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, ISSUANCE, LABOR FORCE, LEVEL PLAYING FIELD, LIEN, LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS, LOAN PORTFOLIOS, LOAN REPAYMENTS, LOCAL GOVERNMENT, LOW INTEREST RATES, MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET FAILURES, MARKET MECHANISMS, MARKET PARTICIPANTS, MATURITIES, MONETARY AGGREGATES, MONETARY AUTHORITIES, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY SUPPLY, NATURAL DISASTERS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NET CAPITAL, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NPL, OIL EXPORT, OIL EXPORTS, OIL PRICE, OIL REVENUES, OTHER CURRENCIES, OUTPUT, OUTSTANDING LOANS, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRESENT VALUE, PRICE CHANGE, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE OF OIL, PRIMARY COMMODITIES, PRINCIPAL EXPORT, PRODUCERS, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, RAPID EXPANSION, RAPID GROWTH, REAL ESTATE, REGIONAL TRADE, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, REPAYMENT, RESERVES, RESOURCE ALLOCATION, RETURN, RETURNS, RISK MANAGEMENT, SECURITIES, SLOWDOWN, SOVEREIGN DEBT, STABILIZATION POLICIES, STATE BANK, STATE ENTERPRISES, STORE OF VALUE, STRATEGIC INVESTORS, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SURPLUS, TAX, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TERMS OF CAPITAL, TIGHT MONETARY POLICIES, TOTAL CREDIT, TOTAL DEPOSIT, TOTAL EXPORT, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADING, TRANSPARENCY, UNCERTAINTIES, UNCERTAINTY, VOLATILITY, WITHDRAWAL