Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

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dc.creatorImbach, Pablo
dc.creatorFung, Emily
dc.creatorHannah, Lee
dc.creatorNavarro Racines, Carlos Eduardo
dc.creatorRoubik, David W.
dc.creatorRicketts, Taylor H.
dc.creatorHarvey, Celia A.
dc.creatorDonatti, Camila I.
dc.creatorLäderach, Peter R.D.
dc.creatorLocatelli, Bruno
dc.creatorRoehrdanz, Patrick R.
dc.date2017-09-26
dc.date2017-09-21T20:39:42Z
dc.date2017-09-21T20:39:42Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T14:31:59Z
dc.descriptionClimate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73–88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46–76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8–18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46–59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10–22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34–51% of other areas. Finally, in 31–33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/88002
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/80933
dc.languageen
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceImbach, Pablo; Fung, Emily; Hannah, Lee; Navarro-Racines, Carlos E.; Roubik, David W.; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Harvey, Celia A.; Donatti, Camila I.; Läderach, Peter; Locatelli, Bruno; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.. 2017. Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 114(39): 10438-10442
dc.subjectcoffee
dc.subjectadaptation
dc.subjectadaptación
dc.subjectsmallholders
dc.subjectpollination
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectcambio climático
dc.titleCoupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change
dc.typeJournal Article

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Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)