UTILIZACIÓN DE UN MODELO DE SIMULACIÓN PARA LA PREDICCIÓN DEL COMPORTAMIENTO DE ALGUNOS CEREALES EN LAS CONDICIONES DE CUBA
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Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Agrícolas
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A research was developed from 2008 to 2012, with the aim of applying modeling tools for the analysis of cereal crop production at different environments in Cuba. The institutions took part in it, were: INCA, INSMET, IS and IAgric. A total of 19 experiments were carried out in rice, maize, sorghum and wheat crops under different soil and climatic conditions, to obtain the required information to implement DSSAT version 3.5 Simulation Model. All information of soils where experiments were conducted was collected and introduced into the model file; besides, a daily climatic report was recorded at the meteorological stations of these experiments. All that information enabled to calibrate and validate the model for the experimental conditions; then, each crop yield was simulated under two future environments (2025 and 2050) using ECHAM model in a2 environment at every experimental site. Model calibration and validation showed the feasibility of its use under these experimental conditions, in order to predict yield and its components. Under the simulated environments, yields ranging between 63,8 and 22,9 % are reached, in relation to the average yield potential of experiments, depending on the crop and the simulated year. For the first time in the country, there is information of the aforementioned crops, to predict the behavior and yield of some cereal crops by using a simulation model as a tool for climatic change adaptation.
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Agrociencias