An econometric analysis of rice consumption in the People's Republic of China
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Rice is the most important staple food in the People's Republic of China (PRC). In many
Asian countries rice appears to have become an inferior good, with income increases
leading to declines in per capita consumption as other food products are substituted for
rice. In this study, human rice consumption is analyzed with a model that allows income
elasticities to vary with income levels. An additional equation accounting for rice disappearance
as seed, livestock feed, industrial uses and exports is also estimated. The results of the
analysis indicate that rice has become an inferior good in China and per capita consumption
is likely to decline in the future. Population growth and the growing use of rice for other
purposes means that total rice disappearance will continue to increase although at a rate
that is slower than has historically been the case. The predicted changes in rice consumption
will create pressures to adjust production and trade patterns for rice as well as other
agricultural products.