Urbanization and Housing Investment
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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This paper provides the first systematic
empirical assessment of the pace at which housing investment
has responded to rising demand from urbanization. The
assessment used National Accounts Statistics to build a data
set of residential housing investment for more than 90
countries. The data set explicitly accounts for investment
by households, the government, and the private sector. The
analysis finds that housing investment follows an S-shaped
trajectory taking off around per capita GDP of about $3,000
(US$2005) and tapering down at per capita GDP around $36,000
(US$2005). The analysis also finds that between 2001 and
2011, housing investment in low-income economies averaged
4.56 percent of gross domestic product and 9.12 percent in
upper-middle-income economies. An important finding is that
countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have housing elasticities
similar to comparable low-income and lower-middle-income
economies. In financing housing investment, the paper finds
that developing countries tend to rely much more on domestic
savings and government debt, whereas high-income
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
countries lever capital markets by tapping foreign savings.
Not only does excessive reliance on domestic savings and
government debt increase the sensitivity of housing
investment to the cyclicality of growth of gross domestic
product, it also can potentially crowd out investments in
health and education.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS, AFFORDABLE HOUSING, AGRICULTURE, ASSET CLASS, AVAILABILITY OF CREDIT, BANKING SECTOR, BINDING CONSTRAINTS, BOND, BONDS, BUDGET CONSTRAINT, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL GAINS, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, CAPITAL MARKET, CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT, CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL OUTLAYS, CD, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANK LENDING, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT, COMMODITIES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, COST OF FINANCE, COUNTRY TO COUNTRY, CREDIT MARKET, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, DEBT, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISPOSABLE INCOMES, DOMESTIC BORROWING, DOMESTIC CAPITAL, DOMESTIC CAPITAL MARKET, DOMESTIC CREDIT, DURABLE, DURABLES, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC DOWNTURN, ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMICS, ELASTICITY, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, EQUIPMENT, EXPENDITURES, FINANCES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL PORTFOLIOS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, FOREIGN INFLOWS, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, GDP, GNP, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, HOME MORTGAGE, HOME OWNERSHIP, HOMEOWNERSHIP, HOUSING, HOUSING MARKETS, HOUSING POLICIES, HOUSING SUPPLY, INCOME, INCOME GROUP, INCOME GROUPS, INCOME LEVELS, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTS, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOBILITY, INVENTORIES, INVESTING, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, INVESTMENT GROWTH, INVESTMENT IN BOND, INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, INVESTMENT POLICIES, JOB CREATION, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL INVESTORS, LOCAL SAVINGS, LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES, MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS, MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET INTEREST, MARKET INTEREST RATES, MARKET PERFORMANCE, MARKET PRICES, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES, MONETARY AUTHORITY, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY SUPPLY, MORTGAGE, MORTGAGE DEBT, MORTGAGE LOANS, NASCENT MARKETS, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, OPEN MARKET, OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS, PORTFOLIOS, PRICE LEVELS, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PUBLIC BORROWING, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC POLICY, RAPID INDUSTRIALIZATION, REAL ESTATE, REAL ESTATE FINANCE, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATE, REAL INTEREST RATES, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS, RESERVE, RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RETURN, RETURNS, SAVINGS, SLUMS, SMALL ECONOMIES, STOCK MARKETS, TAX, TAX SUBSIDIES, TOTAL OUTPUT, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, URBAN ECONOMICS, URBANIZATION, VALUE ADDED, WEALTH, WEALTH EFFECTS, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS