Determinants of Export Survival in the Lao PDR
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper explores a rich dataset of
monthly firm-level data on the population of exporters of
Lao PDR from 2005 to 2010. The survival analysis uses a
discrete-time logistic model based on
firm-product-destination triplets while accounting for
unobserved heterogeneity. It looks in detail at the role
played by two important and related determinants of
survival: experience and networks. These are particularly
relevant for developing countries, where relevant export
experience in firms is likely to be limited and networks
leveraging it all the more important. The analysis reveals
the positive impact of having prior experience with the
export product and destination, experience with importing,
as well as using a developed neighboring country as launch
platform. Networks are found to be most relevant when they
are most specific -- the largest impact comes from province
level aggregations of firms selling the same product in the
same market during a particular month. A competing risks
model was also investigated to discern the impact of these
determinants on the likelihood of experiencing an upgrade to
a superior product versus termination when a trade contract ends.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, AGGREGATION, AGRICULTURE, AREA, ASPECT, AVERAGE PRICE, BANKRUPTCY, BEST PRACTICES, BRAND, BROKERS, BUSINESS STRATEGY, BUSINESSES, BUYERS, CENTRE, CHECKS, CLASSIFICATION, COMMERCIAL TRANSACTIONS, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONTIGUITY, CONTRACTUAL ARRANGEMENTS, CURRENCY, CUSTOMS, DATA COVERAGE, DEPENDENCY, DESTINATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DOMESTIC MARKET, DUMMY VARIABLE, DUMMY VARIABLES, DURABLE, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, EMERGING MARKETS, ENTERPRISE SURVEY, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKET, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORT PROMOTION, EXPORT SECTORS, EXPORT SHARES, EXPORTER, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, FIXED COSTS, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN MARKETS, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMY, IDS, INCOME LEVELS, INFLATION, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS, INTERSECT, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, JOINT VENTURES, LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE, LICENSE, LICENSES, LIQUIDATION, MANUFACTURING, MERCHANDISE, MERCHANDISE TRADE, MERGERS, NETWORKS, NEW MARKET, OPEN ACCESS, ORIGIN, PDF, PEER PRESSURE, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY RESPONSES, POLICY SUPPORT, PORTFOLIO, POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES, PRODUCT CATEGORY, PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION, PRODUCT QUALITY, PRODUCTIVITY, RELIABILITY, RESULT, RESULTS, RETURN, RETURNS, SOFTWARE PACKAGE, SUBSTITUTES, SUNK COSTS, TAX, TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS, TRADE COMPETITIVENESS, TRADE FACILITATION, TRADE NETWORKS, TRADE OPPORTUNITIES, TRADING, TRADING BLOCS, TRANSACTION, TRUST FUND, UNION, USES, VALUE ADDED, VALUE CHAINS, WEALTH, WEB, WTO