Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi

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dc.creatorMukashov, Askar
dc.creatorThomas, Timothy S.
dc.creatorThurlow, James
dc.date2024-06
dc.date2024-06-03T21:00:45Z
dc.date2024-06-03T21:00:45Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:41:19Z
dc.descriptionThis paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/144244
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/111762
dc.languageen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relationhttps://www.ifpri.org/blog/revisiting-development-strategies-under-climate-uncertainty-insights-from-malawi/
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceMukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi. Climatic Change 177: 91. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectdevelopment
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectstochastic models
dc.subjectpoverty
dc.subjectundernutrition
dc.titleRevisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi
dc.typeJournal Article

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