Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

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dc.creatorHernandez, Manuel A.
dc.creatorCeballos, Francisco
dc.creatorBerrospi, Maria Lucia
dc.creatorPerego, Viviana Maria Eugenia
dc.creatorBrown, Melissa
dc.creatorLopez, Elena Mora
dc.date2024-12-02
dc.date2024-12-02T20:43:15Z
dc.date2024-12-02T20:43:15Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:24:08Z
dc.descriptionFollowing recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/162957
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/103303
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137039
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/149816
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/154499
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/145619
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceHernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. 2024. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. IFPRI Discussion Paper2299. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162957
dc.subjectshock
dc.subjectfood prices
dc.subjectfertilizers
dc.subjectmarkets
dc.subjectprice volatility
dc.subjectinflation
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectwelfare
dc.titlePrice and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)