Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation

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dc.creatorRozenberg, Julie
dc.creatorCeline, Guivarch
dc.creatorLempert, Robert
dc.creatorHallegatte, Stephane
dc.date2017-04-01T19:28:36Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-09T06:23:21Z
dc.descriptionThe scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a “backward” approach. The methodology is based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.
dc.identifierdoi:10.22004/ag.econ.130898
dc.identifierhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/130898/files/NDL2012-052.pdf
dc.identifierhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/130898
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/575952
dc.languageeng
dc.publisher
dc.sourcehttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/130898
dc.titleBuilding SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation
dc.typeText

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