CRITERIA FOR CRITIQUING SOCIAL SCIENCE COMPUTER MODELS WITH APPLICATION TO BARR-GALE MODEL FOR CONSUMER PRICE INDEX OF FOOD
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The authors propose six questions relevant to the evaluation of
all social system models, and apply them to the Barr-Gale model
for forecasting the Consumer Price Index for Food. While
analysts invest much effort in developing new economic models,
relatively little attention is paid to critiquing existing models.
For models to become scientifically acceptable and widely used
tools for policy design in the social sciences, they must be accompanied
by complete documentation and data. Then independent
investigators can confirm published results and determine a
model's sensitivity to changes in assumptions. Greater emphasis
on critical analysis and standard procedures for evaluation will
help potential users evaluate models for accuracy and suitability
for their purposes.