The True Cost of War
| dc.creator | Artuc, Erhan | |
| dc.creator | Gomez Parra, Nicolas | |
| dc.creator | Onder, Harun | |
| dc.date | 2022-11-02T16:59:44Z | |
| dc.date | 2022-11-02T16:59:44Z | |
| dc.date | 2022-10 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-01T00:35:50Z | |
| dc.description | Measuring the economic impact of a war is a daunting task. Common indicators like casualties, infrastructure damages, and gross domestic product effects provide useful benchmarks, but they fail to capture the complex welfare effects of wars. This paper proposes a new method to estimate the welfare impact of conflicts and remedy common data constraints in conflict-affected environments. The method first estimates how agents regard spatial welfare differentials by voting with their feet, using pre-conflict data. Then, it infers a lower-bound estimate for the conflict-driven welfare shock from partially observed post-conflict migration patterns. A case study of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine between 2014 and 2019 shows a large lower-bound welfare loss for Donetsk residents equivalent to between 7.28 and 24.79 percent of life-time income depending on agents’ time preferences. | |
| dc.format | text/plain | |
| dc.format | application/pdf | |
| dc.identifier | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099846210202232755/IDU01a8c972b0b88b046e00a6f80b32a5b75366e | |
| dc.identifier | https://hdl.handle.net/10986/38243 | |
| dc.identifier | 10.1596/1813-9450-10217 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/406969 | |
| dc.language | English | |
| dc.language | en | |
| dc.publisher | World Bank, Washington, DC | |
| dc.relation | Policy Research Working Papers;10217 | |
| dc.rights | CC BY 3.0 IGO | |
| dc.rights | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo | |
| dc.rights | World Bank | |
| dc.subject | CONFLICT | |
| dc.subject | REVEALED-PREFERENCES | |
| dc.subject | DATA CONSTRAINTS | |
| dc.subject | DATA CONSTRAINTS INTERNALLY DISPLACED PEOPLE | |
| dc.subject | BURDEN OF WAR | |
| dc.subject | PSYCHO-SOCIAL WAR TRAUMA | |
| dc.subject | ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENTS OF WAR | |
| dc.subject | ARMED CONFLICT BURDEN | |
| dc.subject | CONFLICT-RELATED INCOME SHOCK | |
| dc.subject | FORCED DISPLACEMENT | |
| dc.title | The True Cost of War | |
| dc.type | Working Paper | |
| dc.type | Document de travail | |
| dc.type | Documento de trabajo |