Adoption and Diffusion of Biotechnology: rbST in California
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The problem of projecting future use patterns of agricultural biotechnology
products in order to evaluate their potential for development and commercialization is
a challenging proposition for economists. While many have attempted ex ante
methods of projecting adoption and diffusion rates, very few have tested their ex ante
results after the fact. In this paper, we use the results of a continuous survey of
California dairy producers ex post to test the predictions of an ex ante study of
adoption of recombinant bovine Somatotropin (rbST) carried out using data 4-7 years
prior to the availability of the new technology.