Rice production and climate change in Northeast China: evidence of adaptation through land use shifts

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dc.creatorHu, Yanan
dc.creatorFan, Lingling
dc.creatorLiu, Zhenhuan
dc.creatorYu, Qiangyi
dc.creatorLiang, Shefang
dc.creatorChen, Shi
dc.creatorYou, Liangzhi
dc.creatorWu, Wenbin
dc.creatorYang, Peng
dc.date2019-02-07
dc.date2024-06-21T09:04:53Z
dc.date2024-06-21T09:04:53Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:35:17Z
dc.descriptionClimate change continues to have a great impact on rice production in China, especially in Northeast China (NEC). Historical climate observations from the China Meteorological Administration and statistical agricultural records at the county level were utilized to evaluate the spatial and temporal effects of both climatic and socioeconomic factors on rice production between 1980 and 2010 in NEC by using a linear regression model. The results showed that a 1% increase in the rice accumulated temperature (RAT) significantly increases rice production by approximately 0.728%. Rising RAT over the past three decades increased rice production by 4.44% (equal to a relative contribution of 0.87% to production growth) in NEC, while the majority of rice production growth (79.6%) resulted from increased agricultural inputs. Furthermore, rice production has increased significantly since 2000, and its geographic centroid shifted over 320 km northeastward during the past 30 years. Historical statistical and simulated rice production data for each county were used to quantify the spatial relocation of rice production due to single climatic factors. During 1980-2010, temperature had a significant and coherent influence on moving rice production. The impact of growing season precipitation was not significant, while sunshine had a significant but less spatially coherent influence. Our findings highlight the response of the rice production system to external driving factors, both climate and socioeconomics, to target further research and provide important insights into how a rice cropping system is likely to adapt in a mid-high-latitude region in the future.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/145697
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/108666
dc.languageen
dc.publisherIOP Publishing
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceHu, Yanan; Fan, Lingling; Liu, Zhenhuan; Yu, Qiangyi; Liang, Shefang; Chen, Shi; You, Liangzhi; Wu, Wenbin; and Yang, Peng. 2019. Rice production and climate change in Northeast China: evidence of adaptation through land use shifts. Environmental Research Letters 14(2). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafa55
dc.subjectspatial data
dc.subjectproduction
dc.subjectrice
dc.subjectglobal warming
dc.subjectland use
dc.subjectproduction functions
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.titleRice production and climate change in Northeast China: evidence of adaptation through land use shifts
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)