Internal Conflicts and Shocks
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
World Bank, Washington, DC
Resumen
Descripción
Do income shocks locally affect
internal conflicts To address this question, this paper
employs a meta-regression analysis of 2,464 infranational
estimates from 64 recent empirical studies on conflicts and
income-related shocks in developing countries. After
accounting for publication selection bias, the analysis
finds that, on average, wealth-increasing shocks in the
agriculture sector are negatively associated with the local
risk of conflict. Nonetheless, the analysis finds no average
effect of wealth-decreasing shocks in the agriculture sector
or wealth-increasing shocks in the extractive sector on the
local risk of conflict. The paper also shows that studies
that fail to uncover empirical effects that conform to
researchers’ expectations on the theoretical mechanisms are
less likely to be published. Differences in the geographical
area of study, the choice of control variables, and the way
shocks are measured substantially explain the heterogeneity
among estimates in the literature.
Palabras clave
CONFLICT, CLIMATE SHOCK, COMMODITY SHOCKS, NATURAL RESOURCES, INCOME-DRIVEN CONFLICT, META-REGRESSION ANALYSIS, LOCAL RISK OF CONFLICT, WEALTH-INCREASING SHOCK