Estimating an Equilibrium Exchange Rate for the Argentine Peso

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dc.creatorCoppola, Andrea
dc.creatorLagerborg, Andresa
dc.creatorMustafaoglu, Zafer
dc.date2016-06-14T19:30:45Z
dc.date2016-06-14T19:30:45Z
dc.date2016-05
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:45:20Z
dc.descriptionThis paper assesses the equilibrium value of the Argentine peso exchange rate based on the country's economic fundamentals and compares it with the official exchange rate value. The paper estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model that allows for movements in the equilibrium real effective exchange rate based on changing economic fundamentals, using monthly data from 1980 to 2015. The analysis identifies four key fundamentals driving the equilibrium exchange rate in Argentina: terms of trade, productivity differentials, foreign currency reserves, and trade openness. Based on these fundamentals, before the exchange rate reunification that took place at the end of 2015, the Argentine peso was overvalued by 39 percent. The results are robust to alternative estimation approaches.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26401101/estimating-equilibrium-exchange-rate-argentine-peso
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/24523
dc.identifier10.1596/1813-9450-7682
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/410473
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7682
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectSTOCK PRICES
dc.subjectTIME HORIZON
dc.subjectPRODUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE LEVELS
dc.subjectADJUSTMENT PATH
dc.subjectLAGS
dc.subjectUNDERVALUATION
dc.subjectSTOCK
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL CHANGE
dc.subjectDOLLAR RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST
dc.subjectDEPRECIATION
dc.subjectCOMMON CURRENCY
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDICES
dc.subjectEXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectMONEY SUPPLY
dc.subjectTRADE BARRIERS
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectEXCHANGE
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectBLACK MARKET
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectRISK PREMIUM
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES
dc.subjectBONDS
dc.subjectDEVALUATION
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectVARIABLES
dc.subjectTRADE OPENNESS
dc.subjectMARKET EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectPAYMENTS
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectTRENDS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCHOICE
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subjectEFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectINFLUENCE
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectERROR CORRECTION MODEL
dc.subjectEXOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectMONEY
dc.subjectPARALLEL MARKETS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMETRICS
dc.subjectIMPERFECT COMPETITION
dc.subjectQUOTAS
dc.subjectCRITERIA
dc.subjectPARALLEL MARKET
dc.subjectNET EXPORTS
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectMULTIPLE EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectBLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATE PREMIUM
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectBLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectCONSUMER PREFERENCES
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC BALANCE
dc.subjectAVERAGING
dc.subjectDISTORTIONS
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectTAXES
dc.subjectROBUSTNESS CHECK
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION
dc.subjectMISALIGNMENT
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectCAPITAL CONTROLS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subjectCAPITAL
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectDEFLATORS
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectVALUE
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCREDIT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectEXCHANGE MARKETS
dc.subjectARBITRAGE CONDITIONS
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subjectPARALLEL EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectECONOMY
dc.titleEstimating an Equilibrium Exchange Rate for the Argentine Peso
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.typeDocument de travail
dc.typeDocumento de trabajo

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