2026-07-01http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/410272An export-oriented development strategy fostered the Asia Pacific region’s economic success, making it the fastest growing region in the world. In recent years, despite waning demand from the crisis-hit Western economies, the accelerating demand from China boosted intraregional trade in Asia. Although China’s Asian trading partners benefit from increasing exports to China, this stronger linkage with China has made them more vulnerable to the risk of a Chinese slowdown. This paper examines the impact of a negative Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) shock on Asian economies by employing the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, using the dataset through the third quarter of 2014 for 33 countries. The analysis finds that a negative Chinese GDP shock impacts commodity exporters, such as Indonesia, to the greatest extent, reflecting both demand and terms of trade shocks. Export-dependent countries in the East Asian production cycle, such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, are also severely affected. The analysis also finds that a negative shock to China’s real GDP would not only have an adverse effect on the price of crude oil, as some previous studies have also shown, but also on the prices of metals and agricultural products. The study also investigates the impact of a potential negative shock to the real GDP of the United States on Asian countries, and determines that although the U.S. economy has a larger influence on Asian economies than China’s economy, the Asian countries are more exposed to China than ever through increased economic ties.application/pdftext/plainCC BY 3.0 IGOhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/World BankFORECASTSGROWTH RATESREAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITYMONETARY POLICYTRADE SHAREOIL PRICEECONOMIC GROWTHWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATIONPRICE INCREASESSHORT-TERM RATELAGST-VALUETRADE SHARESSHORT-TERM INTEREST RATESDIRECTION OF TRADESTRUCTURAL CHANGEINTERESTDEPRECIATIONDUMMY VARIABLESEXPECTATIONSINTEREST RATEREAL GDPEXCHANGEEQUITY MARKETDEVELOPING COUNTRIESEXPORTSELASTICITYSHARE OF WORLD TRADERECESSIONPOLITICAL ECONOMYEXPORTERSPRICE INDICESINTERNATIONAL BUSINESSTRANSMISSION MECHANISMDISTRIBUTIONVARIABLESINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIESSLOWDOWNEQUITY PRICESPRICEGOVERNMENT BONDDUMMY VARIABLESUPPLY CONDITIONSINFLATIONECONOMIC SHOCKVARIANCE-COVARIANCE MATRIXIMBALANCEPUBLIC POLICYOIL PRICESECONOMIC SLOWDOWNGLOBAL ECONOMYCURRENCYTRADE SHOCKSERROR CORRECTION MODELCOVARIANCE MATRIXREGIME CHANGESTRADE INTEGRATIONADVANCED ECONOMIESRESERVE BANKEXOGENOUS VARIABLESMONEYGOLDBASE YEARECONOMETRICSINTEREST RATESSUPPLY SHOCKSWTOOPEN ECONOMYBUSINESS CYCLEIMPORTSDIRECT INVESTMENTGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTREAL ESTATECOMMODITY PRICEMACROECONOMIC FORECASTINGBANKING SECTORIMPACT ON PRICESEQUITYFEDERAL RESERVEOIL MARKETEQUITY PRICEFEDERAL RESERVE BANKINTERNATIONAL TRADELONG-TERM INTEREST RATEFINANCIAL CRISISFUTUREVALUEFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTINTERNATIONAL MONEYPRICE OF OILCREDITMACROECONOMICSWORLD ECONOMYDEVELOPMENT STRATEGYDEMANDLONG-TERM INTEREST RATESECONOMYAGRICULTUREEQUATIONSERROR TERMMEASUREMENTSHARESREAL EXCHANGE RATERAPID EXPANSIONFINANCIAL ANALYSISDYNAMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC THEORYLOCAL CURRENCYMONETARY POLICIESENDOGENOUS VARIABLESOUTPUTMACROECONOMIC VARIABLESBUSINESS CYCLESTRADE DATAWEIGHTECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTTRADEECONOMIC INTEGRATIONERROR CORRECTION MODELSGDPGOODSTHEORYGROWTH RATEINVESTMENTRISKBONDSHARESHORT-TERM INTEREST RATECREDIT QUALITYAUTOREGRESSIONINTERNATIONAL PRICESSUPPLYBANKINGTRADE RELATIONSEXTERNAL SHOCKSCOMMODITY MARKETSDEVELOPMENT FINANCECONSUMER PRICE INDEXWORLD TRADECOMMODITY MARKETRAPID GROWTHCOMMODITIESEXCHANGE RATEPRICE INDEXCOMMODITY PRICESTRADING PARTNERSTRADING PARTNEROPEN ECONOMIESCOMMODITYWEIGHTSWORLD MARKETPRICESECONOMIESTRADE STATISTICSDEVELOPMENT POLICYFUTURE RESEARCHWorking Paper