2026-07-01http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/408861This study aims to achieve a better understanding of the agricultural risk and risk management situation in Tanzania with a view to identifying key solutions to reduce current gross domestic product (GDP) growth volatility. For the purpose of this assessment, risk is defined as the probability that an uncertain event will occur that can potentially produce losses to participants along the supply chain. Persistence of unmanaged risks in agriculture is a cause of great economic losses for farmers and other actors along the supply chains (for example, traders, processors, and exporters), affecting export earnings and food security. The agricultural sector risk assessment is a straightforward methodology based on a three-phase sequential process. Phase analyzes the chronological occurrence of inter-seasonal agricultural risks with a view to identify and prioritize the risks that are the drivers of agricultural GDP volatility. This report contains the findings and recommendations of the first phase and includes the identification, analysis, and prioritization of major risks facing the agricultural sector in Tanzania, as well as recommendations regarding key solutions. Chapter one gives introduction and context. Chapter two contains an overview of the agricultural sector and its performance, as well as a discussion of key agro-climatic, weather, and policy restrictions and opportunities. Chapter three includes an assessment of major risks (that is, production, market, and enabling environment risks) facing key export and food crops. Chapter four presents an estimate of historical losses due to realized production risks and a correlation of such losses with production volatility. Chapter five provides insights into the exposure to risks by different stakeholders and their actual capacities, vulnerabilities, and potential to manage agricultural risks. Chapter six presents a risk prioritization by different supply chains and discusses the possible solutions, as well as specific recommendations for the agricultural sector development program (ASDP).application/pdfCC BY 3.0 IGOhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/World BankHOUSEHOLD INCOMESPOLITICAL REGIONSAGRICULTURAL RESEARCHAGRICULTURAL GROWTHPOVERTY LINESUBSISTENCEFARMER GROUPSLACK OF EDUCATIONENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATIONACCESS TO TECHNOLOGYCOTTON PRODUCTIONFARMERILLITERACYRURAL INHABITANTSMILKFOOD CONSUMPTIONSCHOOLINGAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONRURAL GROUPSNATIONAL POVERTY LINELIVESTOCK PRODUCTIONREGIONAL LEVELADMINISTRATIVE REGIONSAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTAGRICULTURAL SECTORSHOUSINGFOOD POLICYRURAL LIVELIHOODSCHEMICAL FERTILIZERSNATIONAL POVERTYPROTEIN CONTENTCAPACITY BUILDINGSTORAGE FACILITIESFOOD SECURITY PROBLEMSLAND TENURERURAL POPULATIONAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTLIFE EXPECTANCYSAFETY NETSREGIONFARM TECHNOLOGIESMATERNAL MORTALITYPOVERTY REDUCTIONSMALL FARMERSAGRICULTURAL PRACTICESRURAL PEOPLEYIELD DATARURAL POPULATIONSCROP PRODUCTIONARABLE LANDFOOD CROP PRODUCTIONSEED SUPPLYRURAL HOUSEHOLDRURAL HOUSEHOLDSCASH CROPSREGIONAL RISKHOUSEHOLD HEADPOVERTY GAPAGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGYINCOME GROWTHREGIONAL TRADEFOOD PRICEFARM RESEARCHACCESS TO INTERNATIONAL MARKETSSPATIAL PATTERNSPARTICIPATORY POVERTY ASSESSMENTNATURAL DISASTERSREGIONAL MARKETPOOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDSHOUSEHOLD INCOMEVEGETABLESLAND DEGRADATIONREGIONAL BODYCASH INCOMESOCIAL PROTECTIONLIVESTOCK PRODUCERSREGIONAL LEVELSFARMERSREGIONAL VARIABILITYVULNERABLE AREASDIMENSIONS OF POVERTYFOOD CROP PRODUCERSFOOD AIDFOOD PRODUCTIONECOLOGICAL REGIONSPEOPLE WITH DISABILITIESPOOR PRODUCERSRURAL POVERTY LINECROP YIELDSCONSUMPTIONFARMER ASSOCIATIONSHOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITYFOOD SECURITYLIVESTOCK SECTORPLANTING MATERIALACCESS TO ASSETSCLIMATE CHANGECOMMERCIAL AGRICULTUREHOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITYCASH EARNINGSREGIONAL BASISECOLOGICAL ZONESFARM PRODUCTIONVULNERABLE GROUPSREGIONAL WORKSHOPLIVESTOCK SALESFAMILY INCOMESAFETY NETRURAL POVERTYSEMI-ARID REGIONSAGRICULTURAL SECTORDRY SEASONSMALLHOLDER FARMERSMALNUTRITIONAGRICULTURAL SUPPORTNUTRITIONACCESS TO FOODHOUSEHOLD BUDGETAGRICULTURAL INPUTSFOOD IMPORTSFOOD INSECURITYHUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEXMATERNAL HEALTHDOMESTIC PRICESLAND PRODUCTIVITYSUBSISTENCE FARMERSFOOD CROPCOASTAL REGIONSREGIONSAGRICULTURAL SEASONPOLITICAL REGIONIRRIGATIONMAJORITY OF FARMERSFOOD CROPSAGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGIESSMALLHOLDER FARMINGSMALL-SCALE FARMERARID REGIONSRURAL AREASPOVERTYREGIONAL DISTRIBUTIONDROUGHT RISKAGRICULTURAL INCOMESFOOD SUPPLYMEATFOOD AVAILABILITYAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYCONSUMER PRICESCHILD LABORRURAL DISTRICTSRURAL ROADREGIONAL INSTITUTIONSREGIONAL FORESTRYREDUCTION OF POVERTYPOVERTY ASSESSMENTFARMING SYSTEMSFOOD PRICESCONSUMPTION BASKETLAND MANAGEMENTFARM-GATEPOVERTY ALLEVIATIONPOOR RURAL PEOPLECENTRAL REGIONSHUMAN DEVELOPMENTREGIONAL COUNCILSReport