Ianchovichina, ElenaWood, ChristinaMottaghi, LiliFreund, Caroline2026-07-01http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/414581The Arab Republic of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and the Republic of Yemen are recovering after a period of economic growth decelerations accompanying the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011. Economic recovery was relatively quick, with industrial production recovering in a matter of months and, in the cases of Egypt and Tunisia, the growth dips of 2011 were smaller than the average growth declines observed around the year of transition during past transitions to democracy. Importantly, the growth decelerations and recovery have taken place in a weak global environment, with events in the Euro zone posing particular challenges to Tunisia, and to a lesser extent, Egypt. The report focuses on the economic developments and short-term outlook for four Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Economies, Tunisia, Egypt, the Republic of Yemen and Libya. These four countries are given special attention because each of them experienced a revolution and a major political change in 2011 and is undergoing a process of political transition toward democracy. The sudden change had important economic consequences. While other countries in the Middle East and North Africa are undergoing political change, the economic ramifications were muted as compared with the changes observed in the four MENA post-revolutionary economies.application/pdftext/plainCC BY 3.0 IGOhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/World Bankaccountingadverse impactagricultureaverage oil pricebalance of paymentbalance of paymentsbank liquiditybanking systembillbinding constraintbondsbudget deficitcapacity constraintscapital accountcapital flowsCDScentral bankclaritycommercial bankscommodity pricesconsolidationconsumer price indexconsumption growthCPICredit DefaultCredit Default Swapcredit expansioncurrencycurrency depreciationscurrency devaluationcurrent accountCurrent account balancecurrent account deficitcurrent account imbalancescurrent account surplusesCurrent accountsdebt burdendebt levelsdepositorsdevaluationDeveloped countriesdeveloping countriesDevelopment Policydomestic consumptiondomestic debtdomestic demanddomestic demand growthEconomic activityeconomic consequenceseconomic contractioneconomic crisiseconomic developmentECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSeconomic environmenteconomic growthEconomic Outlookeconomic situationeconomic slowdownexcess liquidityexchange rateexperience of countriesexport competitivenessexport growthexport volumesexposureexposuresexternal balanceexternal balancesexternal demandexternal financingexternal positionexternal positionsfinancial crisisfinancial managementfinancial marketsfinancial sectorfinancial supportFiscal balanceFiscal Balancesfiscal deficitfiscal deficitsfiscal policiesFiscal policyfiscal positionfiscal positionsfood pricefood pricesForeign Direct Investmentforeign exchangeforeign exchange reservesforeign inflowsforeign investmentforeign investorsforeign reservesGDPglobal marketsgoldgovernment debtgovernment expendituresgovernment financinggovernment revenuegovernment revenuesgovernment spendingGross Domestic Productgrowth ratehigh inflationhigh unemploymenthousehold incomeimmunityimmunity lawimportimport growthimportsinflationInflation rateinflationary pressuresinfrastructure investmentsinterest paymentsinterest rateInternational Bankinternational capitalinternational capital marketsinternational pricesinternational reservesinternational standardsinvestment climateinvestment spendingLabor Forcelabor marketliberalizationliquidityLoanM1macroeconomic indicatorsmacroeconomic managementmacroeconomic performancemacroeconomic stabilitymacroeconomic variablesmarket exchange ratemarket ratematuritiesmonetary conditionsmonetary expansionMonetary Fundmonetary policiesmonetary policynational currencynet exportsnominal anchoroil economyoil exportOIL EXPORTERSoil exporting countriesoil exportsoil importersoil priceoil pricesoil revenuesoil sectoroil supplyOPECOpen marketoutput declinespensionspetroleum pricespolitical climatepolitical riskspolitical turmoilpolitical uncertaintyprice hikesprice indexprice of oilprivate investmentPrivate sector creditpublic debtpublic expenditurepublic expendituresPublic Investmentpublic investmentspublic spendingreal GDPreal interestreal interest ratesrecessionRegional growthremittancesreservereserve requirementreserve requirementsreturnreturnsshortfallsslowdownsovereign riskstructural problemsstructural reformssupply shockssupply sidesurplussustainable growthT - BILLsT-billstaxtax collectiontax revenuestelecommunicationstotal exportsTotal reservestrade balancetrade deficittradingtrading partnertransition economiesTreasuryTreasury billsUncertaintiesUncertaintyunemploymentUnemployment rateUnemployment ratesupward pressurewagesWorld Development Indicators